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Affected by favorable factors such as good cost support and deepening supply and demand situation, Asian PX prices rose strongly in July-August, unilaterally rising. After entering the autumn of September, the cost-side kinetic energy still exists, and the supply and demand side is due to the partial maintenance plan of the Asian PX factory, while the demand for PTA remains strong in the short-term, and the supply tension continues. Therefore, the market mentality tends to increase in September, and the PX price is at Upstream channel.
Supply: In September, Sinopec's Jinling Petrochemical 600,000 tons/year PX unit and CNOOC's 950,000 tons/year PX unit maintenance process were postponed, and Fuhai Chuang 1.6 million tons/year PX unit restart time is expected to be at the end of October. There is no change and the current load operation is continued, and the overall domestic load will remain near 76.05%. In addition to the mainland region, in addition to the Saudi Arabia's other PX plants in September, in addition to Saudi Arabia's 1.34 million tons / year PX installation will be scheduled for 25-30 days, Hanwha Chemical 1.2 million tons / year PX installation plans to park for 2 weeks, Exxon Mobil The 530,000 tons/year PX unit is scheduled to be parked for one month, so the overall operating rate of the Asian PX unit will remain around 75%-80%. In September, Asia's PX supply was weak, and some PXs were able to declare in the future in August. Therefore, the PX import volume is expected to continue at 1.3 million tons in September.
Demand: In September, the maintenance of PTA equipment has expanded. Although the 2.2 million tons of PTA-2 equipment of Hengli Petrochemical was originally scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in September, it is postponed until October; however, Ningbo Yisheng 2.2 million tons of PTA plant plan On September 9th, parking and overhaul for 15 days; Zhuhai BP 1.25 million tons of equipment is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in mid-September; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons of equipment is scheduled to be repaired in mid-to-late September. Affected by the above devices, it is expected that the PTA will start to reach the 76%-82% level next month, and there is no possibility of accidental overhaul parking. Downstream demand remains good in the short term.
"Golden Nine" expects: Although OPEC is worried about increasing production expectations and geopolitical conflicts, it will increase the uncertainty of the oil market. However, due to changes in supply in different situations in Iran, Venezuela and Libya, the confidence in rebalancing has increased, resulting in international oil prices. The center of gravity is strong and is expected to reach the $75/barrel mark, and the PX cost end is well supported. The downstream PTA main price was shocked due to the high domestic load and the expected decline in polyester demand. The spot price accompanied a slight decline. In addition, the domestic PX plant operated stably in September, but the PX installations in other Asian countries still have some maintenance expectations. During the year, two sets of new capacity, Saudi Arabia's routine parking, Vietnam's low production, and domestic PX demand is relatively strong, so the Asian PX supply tension will remain the main kinetic energy of PX, but the current PX-naphtha spread has expanded to a historical high, Increase participants' cautious concerns. Therefore, under the comprehensive measurement, it is expected that the PX price will continue to run at a high level in September, or there may be a slight adjustment in the adjustment expectations. However, under the tight supply and demand environment, the overall trend is still firm and strong, but the increase will be significantly slower than that in July-August.
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