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At the G20 summit, China and the United States reached a consensus on economic and trade issues. The US side slowed down the tax increase plan for Chinese goods, or let the domestic clothing and chemical fiber manufacturers breathe a sigh of relief. China's PTA imports are negligible, and polyester products are still net exporters. Therefore, the levy of tariffs on 276 billion commodities, or the export of chemical fiber and clothing in China, will boost market sentiment. However, despite the turning point in Sino-US trade friction, in the medium term, under the downward pressure of cost, the rebound of polyester raw materials is limited. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
More than 900 textiles will be subject to a 10% tariff increase on exports to the United States, leaving textile and chemical fiber companies a little relieved! Since September 24, the United States has imposed a 10% tariff on 200 billion US dollars of goods from China. There are 5,745 taxation products in this list, including a total of 917 textiles, covering all types of textile yarns, fabrics, industrial finished products and some home textiles. The annual export value of the products exceeds 4 billion US dollars. . (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Since the entry of the 200 billion tax increase list, many export companies have expressed optimism about the development of next year. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
At the beginning of the season, which is mainly engaged in the processing and sales of swimwear, it is one of the merchants in Zhejiang Yiwu International Trade City. He said, "Orders from the US have fallen by 30% to 40% compared to last year." The American merchants are the main purchase targets of Zhiheng Garments Co., Ltd., where the early winter season is located. 60% of the company's annual sales of 20 million yuan depends on exports, and the huge US market accounts for more than 60% of the company's total exports. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Jiang Jiangping, who is doing the Christmas hat trade, pointed to a hat and said, "In July, the measures to increase tariffs between China and the United States came into effect. Various raw materials began to increase prices almost from August 1, and another round rose in September. For example, the fabric of this hat was 9000 yuan/ton before, and now it has risen to 10,200 yuan/ton; and this kind of plush has risen from 7.5 yuan/meter to 9.8 yuan/meter. This leads to delivery after August this year. Many of the orders, about 40% of the annual order volume, we have not made any money." (Polypropylene Industrial Silk)
About 120 enterprises in the Yuhang area, which is mainly based on the home textile industry, are affected, involving an amount of about 130 million US dollars, accounting for 50% of the total textiles and finished products exported from Yuhang District (excluding clothing), accounting for home textile fabrics and finished products. 13.9% of total exports. Among them, the leading textile companies such as Zhongwang Fabric, Otans Fabric, and Central Asian Fabrics are affected more. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
In addition, Sino-US trade friction has already had an impact on cotton imports. The United States is China's most important cotton supplier. Last year, China imported 506,300 tons of cotton from the United States, accounting for 44% of China's total cotton imports. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
It is conceivable that if the tariff increase is adjusted from 10% to 25%, it will have a greater impact on the company. Maintaining at 10% has left many companies a little relieved. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Despite the turning point in Sino-US trade friction, in the medium term, under the downward pressure of cost, the rebound of polyester raw materials is limited. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
1. Raw materials are in a downward trend (Polypropylene industrial yarn)
The easing of Sino-US trade relations may temporarily boost the crude oil market on the emotional side, but in the long run, considering that the US shale oil supply cost is 35-50 US dollars, and the follow-up pipeline capacity in the Permian region is expanding, while the US side In the active export of crude oil and chemical products, we expect oil prices to have a strong performance. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
In December, China had a large number of PX units restarted, according to statistics, roughly 3.2 million tons. Therefore, we see that the PX processing profit has gradually been compressed, from nearly 2,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1400 yuan / ton. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
In the long run, PX still faces the problem of capacity expansion. In the first quarter of 2019, Hengli Petrochemical's 4 million tons of PX units will be put into production and put into operation. PX processing profit is expected to continue to decline significantly. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
2, polyester manufacturers still difficult to go to the library (Polypropylene industrial wire)
Judging from the research situation, the profit of polyester manufacturers is currently at a low level, which is basically close to the profit and loss line, but the overall operating rate is still acceptable. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Large bottle manufacturers began to have orders from some oil bottle factories, and long-term supply orders have been gradually put in place, and the starting load is at a high level. At the same time, most of the filament and polyester short-term manufacturers are in a state of high load. According to the investigation, some high-end filament products are less than one week in stock, but the general stock inventory pressure is still relatively obvious. Overall, the polyester stock is 18 days. High. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
The profit of the texturing machine has recovered from the loss of 300 yuan/ton in September to the profit of 400 yuan/ton, and the bombing started to return to normal level. However, manufacturers generally expect downstream weaving orders to be very general, and the purchases are mainly based on the use. The stocking volume is in a very low state. Considering that this year's Spring Festival will come in February, so downstream manufacturers have a high probability of early holiday, then in the current situation of the overall production and sales of polyester filament is less than 100%, if the downstream bombing factory continues to stock up before the festival, then the Spring Festival stretch and weaving How to remove this part of the polyester filament stock during the shutdown period is still a big problem. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
At that time, polyester manufacturers will not come again to reduce production, we are not sure. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
3, PTA rebound space is limited, far-month contract or relatively weak (Polypropylene industrial yarn)
On the PTA side, the operating rate of short-term installations is still low, staying below 70%, and is in the stage of destocking. The spot PTA processing fee gradually increased to 700 yuan / ton or more, and the market gradually stabilized last week. According to the futures 1901 contract disk price calculation, the processing fee is only 400 yuan / ton, there is still room for upward repair. However, in the long run, due to the factors of lower cost and greater pressure on the de-stocking of the polyester, the PTA rebound space is limited, and the far-month contract is relatively weak. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
On the whole, we believe that despite the turning point in Sino-US trade friction, in the medium term, under the downward pressure of cost, the rebound of polyester raw materials is limited. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
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