In the second half of 2018, after the market for polyester market continued to rise sharply, the market focus continued to decline. However, when the price of raw materials continued to rise in the terminal textile fabric factory, it coincided with the low season of traditional consumption, the cost transmission was unfavorable, and the factory suffered serious losses. The traditional peak season market is approaching, but it coincides with the continuous decline of raw materials. Under the pressure of high stocks, the new orders of the factory are cautious, and the pressure on losses is still relatively high. Affected by this, this year's weaving factory spring festival ahead of the wind, the wind is endless. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
However, this week, the mainstream polyester plants have successively issued maintenance plans, which are more than a month ahead of previous years. According to statistics, the current fixed maintenance involves a total capacity of 4.24 million tons, which is expected to affect the operating rate of 7.6% of polyester. Considering that the inventory of polyester plants is higher this year than last year, and the overall profitability of the polyester industry is weak, it is expected that the actual maintenance time of the polyester plant this year, or after the New Year's Day, will be larger or stronger than the same period last year. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
How much rebound in the market is the polyester factory's large capacity reduction in advance? (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production by 30% this week. Xinfengming's 250,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year units will be repaired for 15 days in December and January respectively. More than half of the manufacturers have chosen to reduce production schedules in different lengths of time during the Spring Festival in January and February. The social stock of polyester will drop significantly. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
However, from the upstream and downstream situation of the market outlook, on the crude oil side, OPEC released the monthly crude oil report on November. The monthly report showed that the decline in Iranian oil supply and the surge in Saudi production offset each other, but overall crude oil production declined in November. trend. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Due to the US sanctions against Iran in November, Iran’s crude oil production fell to 380,000 barrels per day, roughly offsetting the increase in Saudi Arabia’s production in November. There is an increase or decrease, but the supply of the market is still greater than the demand side. Investors are still pessimistic. It is expected that the price of crude oil will have a slight downward trend. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
From the perspective of the PTA installation in December, the inspection was less than November, and the Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000-ton installation planned to stop from December 23 to January 23. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million tons of equipment maintenance is still under repair, and Tenglong aromatics is expected to restart at the end of December, which has not caused much impact on market prices. At present, the processing and repair cost of PTA is still above 800 yuan / ton, and the operating rate is also maintained at 76.91%. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
Generally speaking, although the upstream crude oil market has been reduced, it is a foregone conclusion. However, there are divergent views within the OPEC organization. Geopolitical shocks have occurred. The United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia have formed a three-nation killing situation in the game of oil production reduction. Who can have it? We must not make a clear conclusion on certain voices. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
However, from the perspective of supply and demand, it is an indisputable fact that supply is far greater than demand. Coupled with the economic downturn, the financial crisis of 10 years and a round has come, and there is still not enough confidence in the crude oil market. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
The downstream polyester, filament and staple fiber are closely related to each other, and the profit of polyester is weak. Recently, the polyester is exposed to the edge of the loss. The filament is facing the pressure of cash flow. From the perspective of the operating rate of all parties, the real new demand order performance In general, there has been a situation in which polyester plants have reduced production and shutdowns in large areas. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
There are still nearly 2 months from the traditional Lunar New Year, and the raw materials inventory of downstream weaving and other factories is lower than in previous years. There is still a certain amount of operational space in the market. In addition, according to previous years, the maintenance plans of mainstream polyester factories are mostly before the Spring Festival. In the vicinity of the introduction of the month, the news was released earlier, and there was also a purpose of giving a strong shot to the current stalemate market. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
But with the arrival of the end of the year, everyone's mentality has gradually become more rigorous, and the market has become more speculative. Therefore, the specific implementation of the reduction of the production of polyester plant equipment, it is understood that on Friday, due to the impact of Sino-US trade mitigation, three polyester factories in Ningbo received feedback on hundreds of millions of export orders, resulting in their production reduction plan was met Deferred, indicating that there are still large variables in the follow-up. Overall, we still need to wait for December, and the trend of the polyester market is further clear, and then judge! (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
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