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On January 3, the “2019 China Cotton Zhangjiagang Forum” hosted by Huatai Futures was held in Zhangjiagang City. The guests analyzed the domestic and international market conditions and future market conditions.
It is understood that China's cotton imports have increased significantly in 2018. Zhangjiagang Customs personnel said that with the expectation of the decline in the size of China's reserve cotton, there is a contradiction between supply and demand in domestic cotton use, which will increase the import of cotton. At the same time, the reform of the supply side of the domestic textile industry has increased, and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations has also increased, and the trade opportunities for imported cotton have also increased.
“In the first quarter of 2019, we can use ‘difficulty’ to describe the cotton industry.” When talking about this year’s cotton market, Ruigen International’s general manager Zhu Gensheng said that for domestic textile companies, the lack of funds is a major problem. In addition, the digestion of finished products of textile enterprises is not optimistic. At this stage, it is impossible to determine whether the finished products can be digested to the normal level in the first quarter, and Xinjiang cotton is also urgently to enter the market. Based on the above factors, he believes that the pressure on China's cotton industry in the first quarter is very large.
Chen Tao, chairman of Louis Dreyfus (China) Trading Co., Ltd., said that Sino-US trade friction has had a major impact on China's cotton industry, and many companies are now worried about cotton exports. Prior to this, the domestic price was lower than that of the US cotton, which was upside down, and the current price is basically higher than that of the US cotton, so the import possibility is greater. In addition, the price of Indian cotton and US cotton is almost the same. In this case, how much the US cotton will fall is a problem worth studying.
In addition, Zhu Gensheng also made a detailed analysis of the Indian cotton market. He believes that the drought in India has led to a decrease in cotton yields in 2019. The Indian monsoon was postponed, especially in the Gujarat area, where the monsoon was delayed for about two weeks, causing slower planting. The rainfall in the cotton-producing areas of India this year is significantly lower than normal. After September, the rainfall will be very small, cotton growth will be greatly affected, and the second and third batches will have a greater impact. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
According to him, as of the end of December 2018, the amount of new cotton in India was 11.7 million bales, totaling 1.989 million tons, which was the same as the previous year. In 2019, India's cotton is expected to import 500,000 tons, a substantial increase year-on-year, unchanged from 2017. It is estimated that exports will be around 900,000 tons in 2019, a sharp drop year-on-year. In fact, India has actively introduced textile support policies, and textile production capacity has further expanded. The number of Indian ingots is around 50 million, and the market share will expand due to the increase in the number of Indian yarn exports and textile and apparel exports. In general, India's cotton production has decreased, consumption has been degraded, exports have been maintained, imports have increased, and ending stocks have remained essentially unchanged. (Polypropylene Industrial Wire)
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