- Tell： 0086-516-88400888
- Fax：0086-516-88400888
- E-mail：xzhphx@163.com
- Address：Industrial Zone, Liji Town, Suining County, Xuzhou
Recently, the global unusually high temperature and continuous high temperature weather have greatly increased the electricity demand of residents, and extreme weather has also affected the stability of the power supply system. Extreme weather has triggered a surge in electricity prices overseas, with prices in the southern US state of Texas soaring by 80% in a short period of time. Power failure crisis again.
Looking back at the country, since this summer, many places in China have suffered from high temperature "baking"! From May to June 10, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, many places have experienced high temperature weather. Since mid-June, the north began to experience high temperatures. Recently, North China Huanghuai and other places renewed high temperature weather, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue high temperature yellow warning, Beijing yesterday from four consecutive days of high temperature, the local still exceeded 40 degrees. Affected by extreme weather factors, is the gap between domestic power supply and demand apparent, and what is the probability of domestic "power rationing" this summer? What impact will continued high temperatures have on the textile market?
Will this summer's domestic power rationing "return"?
At present, the market is focused on the El Nino event affecting the world. However, it is worth noting that the overall impact of the "El Nino event" on overseas and domestic will also be differentiated.
It is understood that the impact of El Nino on China may be south water logging north drought, of which East China, Central China, Xinjiang may appear stage high temperature heat wave, local areas may appear extreme high temperature, but also may create the world's warmest record in 2023 or 2024, but this also depends on the intensity and duration of El Nino.
However, from the perspective of the electricity price dimension of overseas markets and domestic markets, there is a certain difference in performance.
"One is the difference in raw materials. The significant feature of overseas natural gas prices is high volatility, so the price is transmitted to the price of electricity, resulting in huge fluctuations in electricity prices." Everbright Futures can chemical director Zhong Meiyan said.
According to her introduction, the domestic coal-based, 2023 domestic coal production will continue at least 12 million tons/day of high operating trend, production only increased, the overall supply is loose, and the main driving force is the secondary industry and the tertiary industry electricity consumption. It is expected that under the influence of El Nino, there may be unexpected high temperatures in summer, but there may also be a "warm winter" in winter, so the annual electricity demand still depends on the growth rate of GDP.
In May, there have been many high temperatures in the country, and the gap between power supply and demand has gradually increased. According to the forecast of the China Electricity Union, the highest electricity load in the country in the summer of 2023 will be about 1.37 billion kilowatts, an increase of 80 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts. With the increase of the proportion of new energy generation and the increase of electricity demand in summer, the power supply in summer peak times still needs fossil fuel power generation.
In addition, this year's El Nino shows different characteristics than previous years, in the early summer, China may face the situation of south waterlogging and north drought. After a drought in April, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces received a wave of precipitation in June, which helped replenish hydropower supply in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The high temperature in northern China has also begun to emerge, and Hebei has experienced temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius for several days.
In Zhong Meiyan's view, the current power may be affected by the weather to show seasonal short-term tension, but in the long run, the volatility will be smooth under the big fundamentals of loose coal supply and demand.
The impact of power rationing on the textile industry
For most industrial products, electricity is used in the production process, so power rationing will have a direct impact on production at the supply side. In general, the higher the power consumption of goods, the greater the impact of power rationing. For example, according to the electricity price of 0.45 yuan/KWH, the production of 1 ton of ferrosilicon requires electricity consumption of about 9000 degrees, and the electricity cost accounts for about 52%; The production of 1 ton of industrial silicon requires about 13,000 KWH of electricity, and the electricity cost accounts for about 46%; The production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum requires electricity consumption of about 13,500 degrees, and the electricity cost accounts for about 36%. Therefore, most provinces and regions will focus on restricting these energy-intensive industries when introducing power rationing policies. In addition, power rationing will also have an impact on the downstream demand for industrial products, but this impact is not easy to directly measure as accurately as the supply side, more is included in the entire economic data, and the current social and economic operation is inseparable. Therefore, the impact on power rationing will focus on the supply side.
Focusing on whether this summer will be power rationing, Lenovo in previous years, some analysts believe that in late July, early August or local high temperature led to insufficient power allocation, causing the industry stage "power rationing".
In previous years, domestic power rationing generally occurs in the south, textile printing and dyeing production capacity is scattered, electricity consumption is relatively high, the summer industry is just entering the off-season, a variety of factors lead to textile terminal enterprises often become the first choice for power rationing.
"In the polyester industry, the downstream textile printing and dyeing production capacity is scattered, the device is relatively flexible, the labor intensive industry, the electricity consumption is relatively high, the summer industry is just entering the off-season, a variety of factors determine the terminal enterprises often become the first choice for power rationing, mostly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas with concentrated production capacity." State Investment Anxin futures chemical chief analyst Pang Chunyan said that the polyester industry chain to the upstream of the larger the scale of the device, low labor intensity, energy consumption is relatively low, the current new PTA technology can generate electricity, so these devices are rarely affected by power rationing.
On the whole, the possibility of large-scale power shortage in China is small. However, in the event of extreme hot weather, short-term "power rationing" may still occur.
The impact of power rationing on cotton textile market
First, it has a certain impact on the normal ordering, scheduling and delivery of cotton textile enterprises.
Second, some cloth factories, printing and dyeing factories, garment factories need to pay close attention to production, catch up with the schedule, management and processing costs rise.
Third, according to the market performance during the previous production cut, the supply and demand pattern of the yarn market and the market will be affected to a certain extent. However, considering the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the yarn market, inventory continues to increase, and if production is limited, it is more inclined to short-term impact.
At present, the core of the textile market is the lack of demand. The high temperature coincides with the off-season of industry consumption, and the current situation of insufficient demand may continue. Up to now, the opening rate of weaving enterprises in Foshan, Zhongshan and other places in Guangdong is maintained at about 20%; The probability of opening cloth factories in Nantong, Suzhou and other places in Jiangsu has also dropped to 40 to 50 percent; In the short term, textile enterprises may reduce the impact of power rationing, rising inventories and insufficient orders by reducing production and other ways.
Xuzhou Heping Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. is located in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. It has focused on the research and development and production of polypropylene, high strength, high strength, high strength, high strength, anti-aging, acid and alkali resistant, etc., which also make polypropylene high strength. Wire can be applied to all aspects of our lives. Peaceful chemical polypropylene, manufacturers supply, complete products, high quality after-sales service, users can rest assured to buy. Peace chemical fiber also has a polypropylene industrial silk, polypropylene high strength wire, high-strength polypropylene wire, polypropylene high strength, high-strength propylene, and hydrazine industrial wire.
You still want to know more product information, please contact: Mr. Wang 187 5178 8889 Website: http://szxyjj.com/