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Crude oil gains boost chemicals markets
Last week, by the short-term macro bearish release, superimposed production cuts to further boost market sentiment, crude oil prices continued to rebound. Data show that WTI crude oil hit the $74 / barrel mark on Friday, and Brent crude oil rose above $78 / barrel, both of which hit nearly a month high.
From this year's point of view, OPEC+ oil producers have frequently acted and continued to release signals of production cuts and prices. By early July, Saudi Arabia and Russia further deepened production cuts, with Saudi Arabia extending an additional 1 million barrels per day of production cuts into August, and Russia planning to cut production and exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August. At the same time, Algeria will also cut an additional 20,000 barrels per day of oil production in August, highlighting the strong willingness of producers to support prices.
Boosted by crude oil, the chemical market seems to be "back to life"! See a little bit of hope.
According to little fish data statistics, last week the chemical market seems to have seen the hope of turning red, and finally reversed the situation of "falling more and rising less". A total of 44 products rose year-on-year, accounting for 61%, and 16 products fell, accounting for 23.8%. Compared with the second quarter has a relatively large adjustment.
PTA gains strongly
Recently, PTA futures increased sharply upward, breaking through the previous oscillation high point. As of the close of the 7th, the PTA main contract rose by 128 yuan/ton to 5808 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25%, hitting a new high in nearly February. It is understood that the 93.3% high polyester load announced last Thursday has boosted market confidence, but such a strong one-day rise exceeds industry expectations.
The reason is that from the perspective of PTA itself, the failure of a domestic mainstream supplier device on the news has decreased to 5%, and the impact is expected to be a week. In addition, the market of the Yangtze River delivery because of the weather is also affected, on the whole, the day's plate rise and the device unplanned maintenance led to a slight improvement in balance.
From the macro level, the recent Sino-US relations have signs of easing, domestic goods as a whole in a state of demand recovery, the real estate policy has been relaxed, the Ministry of Commerce drafted documents to promote household consumption, polyester low inventory high start, the market terminal still maintains relatively optimistic expectations for demand. In addition, the recent crude oil PX cost side has also been supported, PX production capacity in the second half of the year no new capacity, processing fees will remain high for a long time.
Of course, the low inventory and high start of the polyester market is the biggest driver behind the recent surge in PTA. It is understood that the recent high production and high load of polyester has restored the confidence of the polyester industry, and the overall inventory of polyester is low. In particular, some differentiated polyester varieties are oversold, so the polyester factory has a negative plan in the near future.
At present, polyester is in a state of low inventory and high start-up, and it has gradually entered the off-season since June, and the average monthly operating rate of polyester can reach about 92%. As of July 7, polyester instant operating rate reached 93.5%, affected by the epidemic in the same period last year, polyester operating rate was only about 84%, compared with nearly five years of data, polyester operating rate in the same period of five years at the upper edge of the level. This summer off-season polyester operating rate is the highest in the same period of previous years, and the overall performance is not light in the off-season.
At present, the processing difference of PTA market is less than 300 yuan/ton, and the efficiency of enterprises is not good; However, downstream polyester start-up remained at a high level near 93%, and new units continued to be put into production. The news shows that at the beginning of July, there were two sets of polyester devices with a total of 1.05 million tons of new investment, and the polyester production capacity will be adjusted to 75.9 million tons. However, at present, the downstream polyester inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past year, and it is far lower than the level of the same period last year, so the current product inventory does not cause obvious pressure on the polyester plant, and the polyester load is expected to be maintained. Therefore, under the premise of strong demand, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is not prominent, and the poor drive of PTA processing is not strong; However, as the temperature rises across the country, the concern of power rationing is renewed, it may take the lead from the terminal weaving printing and dyeing industry, and there is also a certain decline risk on the demand side, and the valuation risk of PX raw materials is another important potential negative market.
High load operation of loom in July
Recently, the number of orders received by textile enterprises has declined from the previous month, mainly in the state of small orders and occasionally large orders. Affected by the off-season, the grey fabric inventory of weaving factories is still rising, and the grey fabric inventory of weaving enterprises in Shengze area is about 36 days, up 1 day from the beginning of June.
However, from the perspective of the opening probability of weaving enterprises, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is OK, and has not been affected by the off-season and has declined significantly. According to data from the silk city network, the current opening rate of weaving enterprises in Shengze area is 70.5%, down 4.5% from the beginning of June, up 4.5% year-on-year. The comparison of the above two groups of opening rates can be seen that today's weaving load is relatively high in recent years. Even some enterprises are still in a full open state, and there is still no plan to decline in July.
The main reason for supporting the recent high load of the factory is that the cloth boss's expectations for the traditional peak season in the second half of the year are higher, even if the gray cloth delivery speed has slowed down, but in order to prepare for the second half of the year, the willingness to start is not obvious. In the traditional off-season, the price of grey cloth is difficult to firm, with the weakening of the market has loosened.
The weaving load almost depends on the number of orders and market trends. The factory holiday is also more cautious than last year, last year under the impact of the epidemic, the factory holiday is more, and this year obviously feel the holiday is reduced. Although July and August is the off-season of the year, the current temperature is not high, and workers are not willing to take a holiday, but if the temperature is too high in the later stage, they will consider putting a few days off to reduce the boot load.
At present, driven by the cost, raw material prices continue to rise, many downstream factories catch up in the price node before the stock, plus the shipment of factories improved, Friday polyester filament sample enterprise sales rate of 176.9%, individual higher production and sales of about 300%, ushered in a wave of small upsurge.
In summary, the current thriving trend of the textile market is mainly supported by upstream raw material prices, some chemical products are in short supply, and the amount of textile enterprise orders is affected by other factors. However, how the trend will develop in the later period depends on the power rationing situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the fluctuation trend of raw material prices, and the order receiving situation of the terminal textile and garment enterprises.
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