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Recently, many international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, have raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2023 and are optimistic about the momentum of China's economic growth in 2024. It is widely acknowledged that China is the biggest engine of global economic growth.
Research by the International Monetary Fund shows that China's economic growth has positive spillover effects on the rest of the world, with 1 percentage point of growth in China raising the output level of other economies by an average of 0.3 percentage points.
For 2024, Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC Global Research, said: "The development prospects of the Chinese economy are very much in focus." Around the Chinese economy, Liu Jing believes that there are five macro themes worth paying attention to: first, the real estate is expected to achieve a soft landing; Second, domestic consumption continues to improve and is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 7%; Third, fiscal leadership, increasing policy synergy; Fourth, "first to stand before breaking", the structural transformation is more stable; Fifth, the consumer price Index rose moderately, and the producer price index turned positive.
According to the preliminary calculation of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's economy will grow by 5.2% in 2023, meeting the policy target set at the beginning of the year as scheduled. Xu Hongcai said that this year, China's economy will continue to recover steadily in 2023 and continue to develop in a good way, which will inject impetus into the economic growth of Asia and the world.
It is worth noting that the current contradiction of insufficient aggregate demand still exists, and the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 also takes expanding domestic demand as a top priority. "With the introduction and implementation of these policies of the Central Economic Work Conference, the problem of insufficient effective demand will be gradually alleviated, and consumer prices are expected to stabilize and rebound accordingly." We expect moderate price increases in 2024." Kang Yi said.
Xu Hongcai believes that in the medium and long term, the high-quality development of China's economy should be driven by innovation, while in the short term, it is necessary to work together through counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policies, and maintain the consistency of various policies to promote the continuous expansion of domestic demand. In recent years, China has continued to promote a high level of opening-up, and the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the guiding ideology of "promoting stability through progress, first standing before breaking", which means that some major policy measures will be introduced in structural adjustment, quality improvement, reform and innovation. This is a pragmatic measure taken by China to respond to the uncertainties of external changes with its own certainty, and will add new momentum to China's economic development.
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