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For a long time in the past, the most "wayward" product in the chemical fiber industry chain should be PX, and the downstream polyester has many price increases, and it has its shadow behind it.
The most representative is the summer of 2018, textile companies are teasing the polyester that rises to heaven, the PTA that rises to heaven, but the PX that is upstream of them is the "culprit."
The main reason PX can be so "capricious" is nothing else, is that the localization rate is too low.
Increased production capacity by 5.9 million tons in 23 years
In 2023, China's PX production capacity will increase by 5.9 million tons/year to 42.06 million tons/year, an increase of 16.3% over the previous year, and the average annual capacity growth rate has reached 24.8% since the new round of capacity expansion peak in 2019. Under such ultra-high-speed growth, the annual production capacity of 2023 has increased to three times that of 2018, and a large number of domestic PX gaps have faced changes over the years, and the domestic self-sufficiency rate has increased rapidly, from 40.2% in 2018 to 78%. In 2023, all the new capacity will come from the three major groups, among which petrochina Guangdong Petrochemical refining project will be built 2.6 million tons/year, CNOOC Huizhou and Ningbo Daxie will be built 1.5 million tons/year and 1.6 million tons/year respectively, and Sinopec Zhenhai refining and chemical capacity will be expanded by 200,000 tons/year.
At the same time, downstream PTA is also at the peak of capacity expansion, with 10 million tons/year of new capacity released in 2023, an increase of 17.7% in output, and an increase of 18.3% in PX demand.
Although PX is still at the peak of capacity expansion in 2023, due to high international oil prices and accidental maintenance, the installation load in Japan and South Korea is low, and the downstream PTA demand growth is accelerating. At the same time, the shortage of gasoline in the United States has led to an exceptionally strong demand for aromatic oil, and the United States has imported a large number of MX (mixed xylene) and PX products from Asian countries such as South Korea for the contract supply of oil and downstream PTA products, which has tightened PX resources in Asia, resulting in a sharp rise in PX prices.
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